The Federal Reserve kept rates on hold today, as widely expected. Like at the March meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated the high levels of policy uncertainty. He again pointed to that uncertainty as the reason the Fed is standing pat on its policy stance. Glenn Purves, Global Head of Macro at the BlackRock Investment Institute, shares the key takeaways in this special episode of Market take.
We previously flagged the even sharper trade-off the Fed now faces between protecting growth by coming to the rescue with rate cuts and reining in inflation. Powell was more explicit about that, referring to the risks of both higher unemployment and higher inflation. He also acknowledged that the inflation impact of tariffs may not be a “one-off.” If the current elevated tariffs on U.S.-China trade stay in place, we expect supply chain disruptions that could result in a supply-driven contraction in the U.S. this year. Even as we expect a contraction in U.S. activity, the potential for it to be short lived as well as ongoing support from mega forces like AI keep us overweight U.S. equities.
U.S., policy, trade, tariffs, economics, supply chains, mega forces
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